2026 Hong Kong Classic Mile - Complete Breeding Analysis

Race Date: Sunday, 1 February 2026 | Time: 4:05 PM HKT

Venue: Sha Tin | Distance: 1600M | Surface: Turf "B+2"

Prize: HK$13,000,000 | Field: 14 Runners

Race Overview

The Hong Kong Classic Mile is the first leg of the prestigious Four-Year-Old Classic Series, followed by the Classic Cup (1800m) and culminating in the Hong Kong Derby (2000m). This analysis examines each runner's pedigree profile to assess their suitability for today's 1600m test and, importantly, their prospects as distances increase through the series.

Using our comprehensive breeding analysis tools - including aptitude profiling, inbreeding patterns, sex balance metrics, and key ancestor saturation - we've built a complete picture of which horses are bred for the mile and which are bred for the Derby.

The Field - Complete Pedigree Analysis

1. SAGACIOUS LIFE (K507) - $3.20 FAV

Put It Back - Quatro Islas (Trempolino)

Pedigree Profile: Brazilian G1 Derby Paulista winner (2400m) with an American/South American outcross pedigree. The lowest inbreeding coefficient in the field (3.97%) provides hybrid vigour. Aptitude chart shows strong 3YO presence at 1600-2000m with peak performance at the longer trips.

Key Insight: Tipsters and pedigree agree - this horse will be better over further. The 1600m is within range but he's bred to excel at 2000m+. Zac Purton staying aboard is significant.

2. LITTLE PARADISE (K246) - $5.00

Toronado - Devil In Her Heart (Star Witness)

Pedigree Profile: Classic staying pedigree with massive 3YO bubbles at 2000m and 2400m. The Toronado (High Chaparral line) over Star Witness provides the ideal blend of European stamina and Australian speed. Five wins already demonstrates quality.

Key Insight: Rises to the mile today and should handle it comfortably, but the pedigree clearly indicates improvement over further. A genuine Derby contender in the making.

3. INVINCIBLE IBIS (K296) - $3.40

Hellbent - My Dear Friend (General Nediym)

Pedigree Profile: This is a pure speed pedigree. The Hellbent (I Am Invincible) sireline crossed with the Green Desert 4x4 inbreeding pattern creates a horse bred for 1000-1300m. The aptitude chart shows massive 2YO/3YO bubbles at 1200m with a sharp decline beyond 1600m.

Key Insight: Four straight wins is impressive form, but every one of those wins has been building towards this stamina test. At 13.49% inbreeding (highest in field) concentrated through speed lines, the pedigree suggests 1600m is his absolute ceiling. The market has him as second favourite, but breeding theory says this is where the class meets the trip question. He may "do his best work late" as tipsters suggest, but he may also find the final 200m a bridge too far against genuine milers.

Verdict: Respect the form, query the distance.

4. BEAUTY BOLT (K491) - $8.00

Night Of Thunder - Song Maker (Oasis Dream)

Pedigree Profile: This is an ideal Classic Mile pedigree. Night Of Thunder provides Group 1 class at the mile while the Oasis Dream damline adds both speed and stamina. The aptitude chart shows a massive 3YO bubble exactly at 1600m with excellent presence at 2000m.

Key Insight: Finished right behind Invincible Ibis last start and now meets him on better terms at the weights. From a pedigree perspective, Beauty Bolt is far better suited to 1600m than the horse that beat him. James McDonald taking the ride is a significant booking.

Verdict: Potential value at $8.00 - pedigree says this is his trip.

5. CRIMSON FLASH (K173) - $61.00

Showtime - Damselle (Domesday)

Pedigree Profile: Showtime/Snitzel breeding produces horses effective at 1200-1400m. The aptitude chart shows dominant 2YO performance at 1000-1200m with a drop-off beyond 1600m.

Key Insight: Drifting significantly in betting ($61) and the pedigree supports the market's assessment - the 1600m is towards his outer limit.

6. INFINITE RESOLVE (K369) - $17.00

Snitzel - Dee Nine Elle (Duporth)

Pedigree Profile: Classic Snitzel miler pedigree with the Nijinsky 5x5 pattern adding stamina depth. The aptitude chart shows massive 3YO bubbles at both 1200m and 1600m with good presence at 2000m.

Key Insight: The 1600m is exactly his trip. At $17.00, this represents potential value for a horse whose pedigree says he's bred for precisely this distance.

7. PATCH OF COSMO (J357) - $13.00

Super Seth - Thee One (Savabeel)

Pedigree Profile: New Zealand breeding at its best - Super Seth over Savabeel provides the perfect mile-to-middle distance blend. The aptitude chart shows peak 3YO performance exactly at 1600m with good extension to 2000m.

Key Insight: Five wins already demonstrates talent, and the pedigree says 1600m is his optimal distance. At $13.00, this looks like value for a horse bred specifically for this test.

8. PUBLIC ATTENTION (L035) - $15.00

Written Tycoon - Legramor (Commands)

Pedigree Profile: Written Tycoon produces quality sprint-milers. The aptitude chart shows strong 3YO presence at 1200-1600m but limited extension beyond. Notably has the lowest Northern Dancer concentration (2x) in the field.

Key Insight: Noted as "Perfect Match" - right at the top of his range. Grey colt with tactical speed should be competitive but unlikely to progress through the Derby series.

9. WINFIELD (K446) - $51.00

Rally Cry - Daltiva (Macho Uno)

Pedigree Profile: American outcross with Rally Cry (Uncle Mo) over Macho Uno. No stakes winners with similar pedigree pattern in the database, making aptitude assessment impossible.

Key Insight: Complete wildcard from a breeding perspective. The Uncle Mo line typically produces horses effective at 1600-1800m in the US, but this is speculative. The market has him at $51 which reflects the uncertainty.

10. AKASHVANI (K234) - $21.00

Alpine Eagle - Roses In The Glen (Hussonet)

Pedigree Profile: Outstanding European/Australasian staying blend. Alpine Eagle (High Chaparral) provides classic stamina while Hussonet adds quality. The aptitude chart shows massive 3YO bubbles at 1400-1600m AND 2000m with strong presence at 2400m.

Key Insight: Handles the mile but the pedigree screams Derby horse. At $21.00, consider for the series rather than just today. One to follow as distances increase.

11. TOP DRAGON (J481) - $13.00

Pierata - Mica Lil (Testa Rossa)

Pedigree Profile: Pierata (Lonhro line) produces quality sprint-milers. The aptitude chart shows strong 3YO presence at 1200-1600m with moderate extension to 2000m.

Key Insight: Closed nicely behind Sagacious Life last start. The 1600m suits his pedigree and he must be included at $13.00. However, like Public Attention, may struggle to progress through the Derby series.

12. CIRCUIT GRAND SLAM (K201) - $81.00

No Nay Never - Muirin (Born To Sea)

Pedigree Profile: This is a Derby pedigree, not a mile pedigree. No Nay Never provides speed but the Born To Sea (Galileo line) damside delivers serious stamina. The aptitude chart shows a MASSIVE 3YO bubble at 2000m - significantly larger than at 1600m.

Key Insight: Noted as "Perfect Match" - but for the Derby, not today. At $81.00 today, the market correctly identifies that the mile is short of his best. However, this is a horse to follow through the series. When the Derby comes around at 2000m, don't be surprised if he's a completely different proposition.

Verdict: Bank for the Derby, not today.

13. SHANWAH (L123) - $151.00

Too Darn Hot - Lady Sayyida (Iffraaj)

Pedigree Profile: Superb European staying pedigree. Too Darn Hot (Dubawi) over Iffraaj provides a classic blend of quality and stamina. The aptitude chart shows massive 3YO bubbles at 1600m AND 2000m with excellent presence at 2400m.

Key Insight: Like Circuit Grand Slam, this is a horse bred for the Derby. The $151 odds reflect his current form/rating, but from a pedigree perspective, he should improve significantly as distances increase.

14. WINDLORD (L184) - $67.00

Dubawi - Goldika (Intello)

Pedigree Profile: Quality Dubawi pedigree with more speed than typical due to the Danehill 4x4 pattern. The aptitude chart shows strong 2YO precocity at 1000-1400m with good 3YO presence at 1600m and 2000m.

Key Insight: The pedigree suggests the 1600m suits better than the $67 odds imply. The Danehill inbreeding adds speed to the Dubawi stamina. Possible value play at big odds.

Breeding Analysis Summary

Inbreeding Coefficients (6-Generation)

Note: The ideal range for thoroughbred performance is typically 6-9%. Sagacious Life and Winfield are outcrosses, while Invincible Ibis has the highest concentration (through speed lines).

Key Ancestor Saturation

Distance Suitability Matrix

Hong Kong Derby Projections

Based purely on pedigree aptitude profiles, here are the horses most likely to improve as the Classic Series progresses to 2000m:

Horses unlikely to stay the Derby trip:

• Invincible Ibis (speed pedigree)
• Crimson Flash (speed pedigree)
• Public Attention (sprint-miler max)
• Top Dragon (sprint-miler max)

Selections & Reasoning

THE CLASSIC MILE (1600M) - TODAY

BEST BET: BEAUTY BOLT (4) - $8.00

The pedigree analysis is emphatic - this is an ideal 1600m horse. Night Of Thunder over Oasis Dream provides the perfect blend of Group 1 class and mile stamina. The aptitude chart shows a massive 3YO bubble exactly at 1600m. He finished right behind Invincible Ibis last start and now meets that rival on better terms at the weights. James McDonald booking adds confidence.

From a breeding perspective, Beauty Bolt is far better suited to 1600m than the second favourite Invincible Ibis, whose pedigree screams 1200-1300m specialist. At $8.00 vs $3.40, this represents significant value.

EACH-WAY VALUE: PATCH OF COSMO (7) - $13.00

The Super Seth x Savabeel (NZ) breeding is specifically designed for this distance. The aptitude chart shows peak 3YO performance at exactly 1600m. Five career wins demonstrates quality and the pedigree says this is his optimal trip. At $13.00, excellent each-way value.

INCLUDE: INFINITE RESOLVE (6) - $17.00

Classic Snitzel miler with Nijinsky 5x5 stamina infusion. The 1600m is exactly his distance according to the aptitude profile. At $17.00, he's being overlooked for horses with inferior pedigree profiles for this trip.

RESPECT: SAGACIOUS LIFE (1) - $3.20 FAV

The class horse of the field with the best recent form. Pedigree confirms he handles 1600m and will be even better over further. Zac Purton sticking is significant. Deserves favouritism but not a standout from a pure pedigree perspective at this distance.

QUERY: INVINCIBLE IBIS (3) - $3.40

Four straight wins demands respect, but the pedigree raises serious questions at this trip:

• Optimal distance: 1200-1300m
• Highest inbreeding in field (13.49%) through speed lines
• Green Desert 4x4 = pure speed concentration
• Hellbent sire = sprint specialist

The market has him too short. He may well win on class, but breeding theory says this is his stamina ceiling. At $3.40, we prefer Beauty Bolt at $8.00 who is bred to be better at this trip.

FOR THE HONG KONG DERBY (2000M) - FUTURE

BANKER: CIRCUIT GRAND SLAM (12)

Today's $81 odds reflect that the mile is short of his best. But when the Derby arrives at 2000m, this No Nay Never x Born To Sea (Galileo) cross will come into his own. The aptitude chart shows a massive 2000m bubble - significantly larger than his 1600m presence. Follow through the series.

ALSO NOTE:

• Akashvani - Alpine Eagle stamina pedigree, huge 2000m+ profile
• Shanwah - Too Darn Hot staying power, improves with distance
• Little Paradise - Classic stayer's pedigree, massive 3YO bubbles at 2000m+

Summary Box

Analysis compiled using G1 Goldmine/Stallion Match comprehensive breeding analysis tools including aptitude profiling, inbreeding coefficient calculations, sex balance metrics, and ancestor saturation patterns.

Date: 1 February 2026