Australian Maiden First-Up Winners Analysis (2011-2025)
This comprehensive analysis examines 11,553 horses that won their maiden race on their first career start in Australia since 1 January 2011, tracking their subsequent career achievements, including stakes wins, G1 victories, and various contributing factors.
Core Population & Comparison
The Big Picture: How Rare Is This?
| Metric |
Value |
| Horses debuting in maidens (2011-2025) |
127,257 |
| Won on debut |
11,553 |
| Win rate on debut |
9.08% |
Career Achievements
| Achievement |
Horses |
% of Maiden First-Up Winners |
| Any Stakes Winner |
943 |
8.16% |
| G1 Winner |
139 |
1.20% |
| G2 Winner |
234 |
2.03% |
| G3 Winner |
375 |
3.25% |
| Listed Winner |
603 |
5.22% |
vs General Australian Runner Population
| Metric |
Maiden First-Up Winners |
All AUS Runners |
| Stakes Winners |
8.16% |
3.65% |
| G1 Winners |
1.20% |
0.59% |
Maiden first-up winners are 2.2x more likely to become stakes winners and 2x more likely to become G1 winners than the general population
Career Averages
- 19.4 runs per horse
- 3.4 wins per horse
- ~700-770 horses per year achieve this
Key Finding #1: Winning Margin Predicts Future Success
| Winning Margin |
Horses |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| Dominant (>3L) |
1,287 |
13.29% |
2.33% |
| Easy (1.5-3L) |
2,209 |
11.45% |
1.45% |
| Comfortable (0.5-1.5L) |
3,268 |
7.50% |
0.95% |
| Narrow (≤0.5L) |
4,789 |
5.72% |
0.96% |
Horses that win by 3+ lengths on debut are 2.3x more likely to become stakes winners
Key Finding #2: Winning First TWO Starts is Huge
| Career Start |
Horses |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| Won first 2 starts |
2,207 |
20.71% |
3.72% |
| Won maiden only |
9,346 |
5.20% |
0.61% |
Horses winning their first 2 starts are 4x more likely to become stakes winners and 6x more likely to win a G1
Key Finding #3: The Sooner You Break Your Maiden, The Better
| Starts to First Win |
Horses |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| 1st start |
14,879 |
12.27% |
2.12% |
| 2nd start |
12,974 |
8.19% |
1.42% |
| 3rd start |
11,723 |
6.33% |
0.81% |
| 4-5 starts |
18,842 |
3.98% |
0.46% |
| 6-10 starts |
24,765 |
2.02% |
0.26% |
| 10+ starts |
13,675 |
0.93% |
0.09% |
Every additional start to break maiden cuts stakes potential dramatically
Key Finding #4: Age at Debut Matters
| Age |
Horses |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| 2yo |
314 |
16.56% |
1.91% |
| 3yo |
5,619 |
11.32% |
1.98% |
| 4yo |
4,488 |
5.15% |
0.40% |
| 5yo+ |
1,087 |
2.21% |
0.37% |
Early starters (2yo/3yo) have 2-3x better outcomes than late developers
Key Finding #5: Venue Quality Correlates with Success
| Venue |
Horses |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners |
| Warwick Farm |
118 |
31.36% |
10 |
| Canterbury |
186 |
29.03% |
18 |
| Randwick-Kensington |
75 |
28.00% |
4 |
| Kembla Grange |
289 |
19.72% |
9 |
| Bendigo |
262 |
16.41% |
6 |
| Bunbury |
182 |
15.93% |
1 |
| Pakenham |
140 |
13.57% |
5 |
| Ballarat |
225 |
12.89% |
9 |
Metro Sydney debutants become stakes winners at 3-4x the rate of country tracks
Key Finding #6: Dam Quality Doubles the Odds
| Dam Status |
Horses |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| Stakes-winning dam |
1,346 |
14.19% |
2.67% |
| Non-SW dam |
10,207 |
7.37% |
1.01% |
Key Finding #7: Optimal Distance is 1200-1400m
| Distance |
Stakes Winner % |
G1 Winner % |
| 1200-1399m |
9.59% |
1.70% |
| 1400-1599m |
9.26% |
1.74% |
| 1000-1199m |
7.72% |
0.89% |
| Mile (1600-1999m) |
6.45% |
1.61% |
| Sprint (<1000m) |
4.87% |
0.66% |
| Middle/Staying (2000m+) |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Origin |
Stakes Winners |
G1 Winners |
| Imported |
10.64% |
2.18% |
| Australian-bred |
7.91% |
1.10% |
Key Finding #9: 1 in 5 Australian G1 Winners Won Their Maiden First-Up
Of 674 G1 winners in Australia since 2011, 133 (19.73%) won their maiden on debut.
Debut Position of Future G1 Winners
| Debut Finish |
% of G1 Winners |
| 1st |
34.79% |
| 2nd |
13.36% |
| 3rd |
10.21% |
| 4th-5th |
16.27% |
| 6th-10th |
18.07% |
| 11th+ |
7.30% |
Over 1/3 of all G1 winners won on debut
State Analysis
| State |
Debut Winners |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners % |
| WA |
934 |
11.13% |
0.64% |
| NSW |
3,566 |
9.65% |
1.74% |
| VIC |
3,868 |
8.71% |
1.58% |
| TAS |
270 |
6.67% |
0.00% |
| SA |
691 |
6.37% |
0.14% |
| ACT |
149 |
5.37% |
1.34% |
| QLD |
2,018 |
4.26% |
0.35% |
WA produces the highest % of stakes winners, but NSW/VIC dominate G1 production
Sex Analysis
| Sex |
Horses |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners % |
| Males |
6,494 |
8.07% |
1.34% |
| Females |
5,059 |
8.28% |
1.03% |
Seasonal Patterns (Month of First Start)
| Month |
Horses |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners |
| February |
934 |
9.96% |
13 |
| June |
855 |
9.71% |
19 |
| May |
903 |
9.63% |
9 |
| September |
879 |
8.65% |
19 |
| March |
964 |
9.13% |
16 |
| April |
980 |
8.57% |
10 |
| October |
1,002 |
8.18% |
13 |
| January |
1,246 |
7.38% |
9 |
| December |
1,026 |
7.41% |
11 |
| August |
929 |
7.00% |
9 |
| November |
1,028 |
6.71% |
6 |
| July |
807 |
5.95% |
5 |
Track Condition on Debut
| Condition |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners % |
| Heavy(9) |
10.03% |
1.94% |
| Soft(7) |
9.36% |
1.23% |
| Heavy(8) |
9.24% |
1.05% |
| Good(4) |
9.12% |
1.30% |
| Soft(5) |
8.31% |
1.47% |
| Good(3) |
7.62% |
0.93% |
| Heavy(10) |
7.53% |
2.09% |
| Soft(6) |
7.21% |
1.37% |
| Synthetic |
6.71% |
0.67% |
Winning on heavy tracks slightly predicts higher stakes success
Barrier Analysis
| Barrier Group |
Horses |
Stakes Winners % |
| Wide (13+) |
148 |
11.49% |
| Outside (9-12) |
1,702 |
8.17% |
| Middle (5-8) |
4,362 |
8.14% |
| Inside (1-4) |
5,341 |
8.09% |
Winning from wide on debut might actually indicate higher ability
Field Size Analysis
| Field Size |
Horses |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners % |
| Very Large (15+) |
124 |
9.68% |
0.81% |
| Medium (7-10) |
6,035 |
8.24% |
1.31% |
| Large (11-14) |
4,323 |
8.14% |
1.11% |
| Small (1-6) |
1,071 |
7.66% |
1.03% |
Elite Trainers (Debut Winners → Stakes Winners)
| Trainer |
Debut Winners |
Stakes Winners |
SW% |
G1 Winners |
| G & A Williams |
47 |
14 |
29.79% |
4 |
| Ms G Waterhouse |
51 |
14 |
27.45% |
3 |
| J A O'Shea |
106 |
27 |
25.47% |
3 |
| P & P Snowden |
92 |
23 |
25.00% |
6 |
| C J Waller |
194 |
48 |
24.74% |
17 |
| A J Cummings |
43 |
10 |
23.26% |
0 |
| Tony McEvoy |
63 |
14 |
22.22% |
0 |
| G Portelli |
32 |
7 |
21.88% |
2 |
| James Cummings |
106 |
23 |
21.70% |
4 |
| Simon Miller |
39 |
8 |
20.51% |
0 |
| Joseph Pride |
54 |
11 |
20.37% |
4 |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott |
153 |
31 |
20.26% |
6 |
| C Maher & D Eustace |
138 |
23 |
16.67% |
4 |
Waller has produced the most G1 winners from maiden first-up wins
Top Sires Producing G1 Winners from This Pool
| Sire |
Maiden First-Up Winners |
Became G1 Winners |
Total G1 Wins |
| Redoute's Choice |
111 |
6 |
14 |
| Snitzel |
234 |
6 |
11 |
| I Am Invincible |
165 |
6 |
8 |
| Dundeel |
75 |
5 |
8 |
| Fastnet Rock |
154 |
4 |
10 |
| Zoustar |
89 |
4 |
8 |
| So You Think |
97 |
4 |
5 |
| Exceed And Excel |
117 |
3 |
5 |
| Northern Meteor |
50 |
3 |
5 |
| Written Tycoon |
185 |
3 |
5 |
| Not A Single Doubt |
94 |
3 |
4 |
| All Too Hard |
64 |
2 |
10 |
Top Sires by Stakes Winner Conversion Rate (min 30 debut winners)
| Sire |
Debut Winners |
Stakes Winners |
SW% |
| Blackfriars |
44 |
10 |
22.73% |
| Redoute's Choice |
111 |
22 |
19.82% |
| Savabeel |
73 |
14 |
19.18% |
| Zoustar |
89 |
17 |
19.10% |
| High Chaparral |
69 |
13 |
18.84% |
| Sebring |
80 |
15 |
18.75% |
Top Damsires (from Maiden First-Up Winners)
| Damsire |
Debut Winners |
Stakes Winners % |
G1 Winners |
| Redoute's Choice |
269 |
15.99% |
8 |
| Red Ransom |
71 |
15.49% |
1 |
| Galileo |
68 |
14.71% |
1 |
| Encosta De Lago |
262 |
14.50% |
7 |
| Flying Spur |
154 |
14.29% |
2 |
| Fastnet Rock |
162 |
14.20% |
6 |
| Street Cry |
92 |
14.13% |
2 |
| Shamardal |
50 |
14.00% |
1 |
| Elusive Quality |
73 |
13.70% |
1 |
| Lonhro |
135 |
13.33% |
2 |
| Danehill |
174 |
12.07% |
4 |
Notable G1 Winners (Maiden First-Up Winners)
| Horse |
YOB |
Runs |
Wins |
G1 |
G2 |
G3 |
L |
| Nature Strip |
2014 |
44 |
22 |
9 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
| Alligator Blood |
2016 |
32 |
15 |
7 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
| Santa Ana Lane |
2012 |
44 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Lankan Rupee |
2009 |
29 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| The Autumn Sun |
2015 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Trapeze Artist |
2014 |
20 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Appearance |
2008 |
19 |
9 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| Atlantic Jewel |
2008 |
11 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| Giga Kick |
2019 |
20 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| Joliestar |
2020 |
18 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| Zougotcha |
2019 |
18 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| Arcadia Queen |
2015 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
Famous G1 Winners Who LOST on Debut
| Horse |
Debut Position |
Career G1 Wins |
| Verry Elleegant |
3rd |
11 |
| King Mufhasa |
4th |
10 |
| Lim's Kosciuszko |
3rd |
10 |
| Imperatriz |
2nd |
10 |
| Mr Brightside |
2nd |
10 |
| Anamoe |
5th |
9 |
| Romantic Warrior |
4th |
9 |
| Beauty Generation |
2nd |
8 |
| Good Ba Ba |
4th |
7 |
| Highland Reel |
3rd |
7 |
| Chautauqua |
2nd |
6 |
| Boban |
9th |
5 |
| Ocean Park |
8th |
5 |
Fastest to G1 Glory (Days from Debut to First G1 Win)
| Horse |
Days |
Year |
| Profondo |
38 |
2021 |
| Marhoona |
43 |
2025 |
| Never Been Kissed |
44 |
2021 |
| Vinrock |
44 |
2025 |
| The Autumn Sun |
45 |
2018 |
| Abbey Marie |
45 |
2016 |
| Atlantic Jewel |
50 |
2011 |
| Attica |
52 |
2025 |
| Militarize |
59 |
2023 |
| Lights Of Heaven |
62 |
2011 |
| Odeum |
63 |
2020 |
Late Bloomers: Longest Gap from Debut to G1 Win
| Horse |
Debut |
First G1 |
Years |
| Mariamia |
Jun 2019 |
Mar 2023 |
3.7 years |
| Smart Star |
Jul 2021 |
Oct 2024 |
3.3 years |
| Dixie Blossoms |
Dec 2015 |
Mar 2019 |
3.2 years |
| Stronger |
Nov 2018 |
Jan 2022 |
3.2 years |
| Tashi |
Jun 2022 |
Jun 2025 |
3.0 years |
| Under The Louvre |
Jun 2013 |
Jun 2016 |
3.0 years |
| Flamberge |
Jun 2012 |
May 2015 |
3.0 years |
| Prince Of Penzance |
Mar 2013 |
Nov 2015 |
2.7 years |
Recent G1 Wins by Maiden First-Up Winners (2024-2025)
| Horse |
Race |
Date |
Venue |
| Giga Kick |
VRC Champions Sprint |
Nov 2025 |
Flemington |
| Attica |
Spring Champion Stakes |
Oct 2025 |
Randwick |
| Globe |
Might And Power |
Oct 2025 |
Caulfield |
| Autumn Boy |
Caulfield Guineas |
Oct 2025 |
Caulfield |
| Asfoora |
Prix de l'Abbaye |
Oct 2025 |
Longchamp |
| Baraqiel |
Moir Stakes |
Sep 2025 |
Moonee Valley |
| Asfoora |
Nunthorpe Stakes |
Aug 2025 |
York |
| Tashi |
Tattersall's Tiara |
Jun 2025 |
Eagle Farm |
| Joliestar |
Kingsford Smith Cup |
Jun 2025 |
Eagle Farm |
| Sunshine In Paris |
Doomben 10,000 |
May 2025 |
Doomben |
| Briasa |
T J Smith Stakes |
Apr 2025 |
Randwick |
| Marhoona |
Golden Slipper |
Mar 2025 |
Rosehill |
Now Sires Themselves (G1 Winners from This Group at Stud)
| Stallion |
YOB |
Progeny Count |
| Zoustar |
2010 |
1,611 |
| Brazen Beau |
2011 |
752 |
| Russian Revolution |
2013 |
687 |
| Hellbent |
2012 |
586 |
| Shooting To Win |
2011 |
564 |
| Tivaci |
2012 |
432 |
| Trapeze Artist |
2014 |
423 |
| The Autumn Sun |
2015 |
410 |
| Merchant Navy |
2014 |
331 |
| Kermadec |
2011 |
327 |
| Hallowed Crown |
2011 |
323 |
| Exceedance |
2016 |
291 |
| Castelvecchio |
2016 |
220 |
| Profondo |
2018 |
81 |
| In The Congo |
2018 |
66 |
The Perfect Profile: Maximum Stakes Potential
A horse most likely to become a stakes winner after winning their maiden first-up:
| Factor |
Ideal Profile |
| Winning margin |
3+ lengths |
| Second start result |
Also won |
| Age at debut |
2yo or 3yo |
| Debut venue |
Sydney metro (Warwick Farm, Canterbury) |
| Dam status |
Stakes winner |
| Sire |
Redoute's Choice, Snitzel, I Am Invincible |
| Damsire |
Redoute's Choice, Encosta De Lago |
| Trainer |
Waller, Snowdens, Waterhouse/Bott |
| Track condition |
Heavy or Good(4) |
| Distance |
1200-1400m |
| Origin |
Imported (slight edge) |
Key Takeaways
- Winning on debut matters - These horses are 2.2x more likely to become stakes winners than the general population
- The faster you break your maiden, the better. Stakes winner rates drop dramatically with each additional start needed
- Dominant debut wins are predictive - Winning by 3+ lengths predicts 2.3x higher stakes success rate
- Winning your first two starts is a massive indicator - 20.71% become stakes winners vs 5.20% for single-win debut horses
- Where you debut matters - Sydney metro venues produce stakes winners at 3-4x the rate of country tracks
- Breeding counts - Stakes-winning dams nearly double the odds of stakes success
- 1 in 5 G1 winners won on debut - This cohort is significantly overrepresented at the elite level
Analysis based on Australian racing data from 1 January 2011 to December 2025. Generated using Stallion Match and G1 Goldmine's extensive dataset.
