The 2025 Golden Rose: Can Skyhook Defy the Waller Army and Rewrite the Script?
Speed, statistics, and a serious colt in the red V.
As spring heats up and the Group 1s roll in, Skyhook arrives at Rosehill for the $1 million Yulong Golden Rose Stakes (1400m) with more than just momentum — he arrives as a genuine contender against trend, against reputation, and possibly, into history.
In a year where Chris Waller saddles nearly half the field, a filly breaks new ground as favourite, and the 10-year data screams strict patterns, Skyhook shapes as the wildcard with the weaponry to strike.
Let’s dive deep into the form, the patterns, the pedigree, and the potential — because this year’s Golden Rose is shaping as one of the most fascinating in a decade.
Golden Rose: 10 Years of Group 1 Trends
| Metric | 10-Year Pattern | Key Takeaways |
| Winning Sex | 100% Colts | No filly has won since 2008 (Forensics) |
| Weight | 56.5kg | Universal for winning Colts |
| Favourite Win Rate | 50% | 5 of 10 were favorites |
| Odds Range | $2.15 – $41.00 | ⚠️ TRAPEZE ARTIST won at $41! |
| Inside Barriers (1–4) | 40% | Good but not dominant |
| Wide Barriers | 40% | Equal to inside success! |
| Average Barrier | 6.4 | Much wider than expected |
| Trainer Dominance | Waller, Cummings, O’Shea | 6/10 wins shared |
| Lead-Up Race | Run to the Rose | 40% of winners come via this G2 |
Absolute Rules:
- Only 3yo colts carrying 56.5kg win
- No filly in 10 years
Dosage Decoded: What the Pedigree Says
We analysed every runner’s Roman Dosage Profile, using a customised Chef-de-Race model inspired by Dr Roman’s theory and built from global data. Here's what it tells us:
Skyhook (Written Tycoon x Madame Pauline)
- Brilliant: 30
- DI: 3.83
- CD: 1.03
- Speed: 72.41%
A heavily speed-biased colt, suited up to 1600m, built to sprint hard then sustain. This is the second-highest speed dosage in the race — only Beiwacht is faster on paper.
Sixties (Flying Artie)
- DI: 3.00 | CD: 0.70 | Speed: 73.3%
- Another pure speed colt with 1400m upside.
Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun)
- DI: 3.27 | Speed: 62.5%
- Slightly more balanced, still sprint-leaning.
Wodeton & State Visit (Wootton Bassett)
- DI ~1.0 | Balanced profiles
- Classic middle-distance aptitude
Nepotism (Brutal)
- DI: 0.76 | CD: -0.28 | 52% Stamina ❌
- Most stamina-leaning profile in the race. May find 1400m too sharp.
Dosage Insight: Golden Rose winners trend toward speed-leaning, classic-balanced profiles. Skyhook, Sixties, Autumn Boy, and Beiwacht top this profile. Nepotism is the least suited.
Form + Barrier + Patterns = Match Score
| Runner | Barrier | SP | Trainer | Lead-Up | Pattern Match |
| Sixties | 4 | $15.00 | Chris Waller | Won G3 Ming Dyn | ✅✅✅ Best profile |
| Wodeton | 1 | $4.60 | Chris Waller | 2nd San Domenico | ✅✅ Rail draw |
| Autumn Boy | 7 | $4.50 | Chris Waller | 2nd to Sixties | ✅ Mid draw OK |
| Skyhook | 5 | $5.50 | Ryan & Alexiou | 3rd G2 R2R | ✅✅ Stakes Winner |
| Beiwacht | 2 | $9.00 | Chris Waller | 2nd G2 R2R | ✅ Inside Draw |
| Tempted | 8 | $3.20 | Ciaron Maher | Won G2 R2R | ❌ Filly (0%) |
| Nepotism | 3 | $12.00 | Hawkes | 9th G2 R2R | ❌ Poor form |
| Rivellino | 9 | $26.00 | Kris Lees | 6th G2 R2R | ⚠️ Wide OK (40% win) |
| State Visit | 6 | $35.00 | Ciaron Maher | 5th G2 R2R | ⚠️ Moderate form |
Skyhook’s Setup: Race-Day Profile
- Form: 1st (Rosebud), 3rd (Run to the Rose)
- Barrier: 5
- Track: Good 3–4 forecast – suits action
- Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (past Golden Rose winner)
- Trainer: Gerald Ryan (trained Trapeze Artist to win this race from BARRIER 14 at $41!)
- Dosage: Highest-speed profile of the top contenders
If the early speed sets up, Skyhook can settle midfield with cover and launch late. That’s his proven pattern.
Prediction & Strategy
Top Picks (Based on Total Profile):
- Sixties – G3 winner, inside draw, Waller, wet/dry proven
- Skyhook – Stakes winner, dosage edge, Ryan knows how to win this
- Wodeton – Rail, consistent, G2/Group 1 placed
- Autumn Boy – Still improving, good 1400m form
Avoid:
- Tempted – Filly (0% record), despite best form in the race
- Nepotism – Poor form + wrong dosage
- ⚠️ State Visit – Moderate lead-ups
Best Value Bet: Skyhook – Speed pedigree, inside historical range, and form that's held strong in the best races.
Final Word: Don’t Overlook the Red V
This race may revolve around Waller’s army and the daring of a well-backed filly, but Skyhook is the colt built for this moment. He’s:
- Fast enough on pedigree ✅
- Hard fit off a proper prep ✅
- Drawn right and priced right ✅
- From a stable that’s won this at $41 from barrier 14 ✅
If history is a guide — and it usually is — the winner of the 2025 Golden Rose will be a colt carrying 56.5kg with black-type form. Barriers don't matter (winners from 1-14), and huge odds are possible (Trapeze Artist $41).
That is Skyhook.
Back the red V. This could be the launch of something big.