Statistically Speaking: Can Pedigree Predict the Preakness Winner?

In a race traditionally dominated by proven class and staying power, the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes promises a pedigree shootout of epic proportions. While the Kentucky Derby often grabs the headlines, the Preakness has revealed stars like Curlin, Bernardini, and Rachel Alexandra. But what if we told you that this year’s winner could be spotted not by watching the track, but by studying the pedigree data?

Using Stallion Match's proven pedigree analysis tools, we break down each of the nine contenders in this Saturday's Group 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. And for those wanting to search their matings or explore what a Perfect Match or 20/20 Match means, head to StallionMatch.com and try your search.

The Contenders: Analysed by Pedigree

1. Goal Oriented

Match Type: Standard Rating
Summary: No Perfect or 20/20 Match, but does show moderate similarity to runners like Cogburn and Dothraki Queen. A reasonable background with Giant's Causeway and Afleet Alex in the mix, but lacks deep confirmation.
Similarity Scores: Hover around 48%

2. Journalism

Summary: One of the strongest profiles. Shared ancestry with Clairiere and Paris Lights, two Group-winning fillies by Curlin and Smart Strike lines.
Similarity Score Range: Consistent 71%

3. American Promise

Summary: Backed by Tapit, Scat Daddy and Ghostzapper, this colt's data resembles winners like Arabian Lionand Champions Dream. A strong commercial pedigree.
Similarity Score Range: 71% - 84%

4. Heart of Honor

Summary: A fantastic pedigree, showing a 100% match to G3 performer Antipathy. Bred on strong Honor Code x Scat Daddy lines with good residuals.
Similarity Score: Peaks at 100%

5. Pay Billy

Match Type: No Match
Summary: The weakest profile in the field. No Perfect or 20/20 match, with only modest alignment to stakes winners like Alms and Goin' Good.
Similarity Scores: Mostly around 39% - 48%

6. River Thames

Summary: Excellent value play. Shares close genetic traits with horses like Laugh Track and Comicas. Consistently strong Similarity Scores.
Similarity Scores: 68% - 71%

7. Sandman

Summary: A genuine standout. Tapit x Distorted Humor cross, backed by matches to Unique Bella, Mr Speaker and West Coast Belle. One of only 3% of matings that achieve Perfect Match status.
Similarity Score Peak: 84%

8. Clever Again

Summary: Shares ancestors with runners like Above The Curve and Van Gogh. Consistent scores and a strong pedigree model.
Similarity Scores: As high as 90%

9. Gosger

Summary: Like Sandman, it has a highly rare profile. Aligned with winners like Mo Donegal, Tenma, and Kingsbarns. Another serious statistical contender.
Similarity Scores: Cluster at 71%

Race Snapshot

Race: G1 Preakness Stakes (150th running)
Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025 (Sunday AM AEST)
Distance: 1 3/16 miles (1900m)
Surface: Dirt
Purse: US$2 million
Track: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland

Past Notable Winners: Curlin (2007), Rachel Alexandra (2009), California Chrome (2014), Justify (2018), and Swiss Skydiver (2020).

Selections (Based on Pedigree Strength)

1st - Sandman (Perfect Match) - $4, John R. Velazquez, Mark E. Casse

2nd - Journalism (20/20 Match, consistent Curlin/Curlin-line success) - $1.6, Umberto Rispoli, Michael W. McCarthy

3rd - River Thames (20/20 Match) - $4.5, Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd A. Pletcher

Roughie to Watch - Gosger (Sneaky Perfect Match with consistent similarity) - $20, Luis Saez, Brendan P. Walsh

Want to Find Your Own Perfect Match?

Run your mare through Stallion Match today and see if you can find that 1-in-30 result. Like Sandman and Gosger, those rare alignments are statistically more likely to deliver.

Visit StallionMatch.com to get started.

Pedigree-based racing insight, made simple and accessible. Because in breeding and racing, the best data wins.